SOUTH AFRICAN GOLD PRODUCTION AND ANNUAL AVERAGE GOLD PRICES (IN ACTUAL AND CONSTANT 1983 U.S. DOLLARS), 1981-2008.

Sources: South African gold production from SA Chamber of Mines (www.bullion.org.za). Actual annual average gold prices from Kitco (www.kitco.com). Constant 1983 $ gold prices determined using CPI deflator available at www.measuringworth.com.

Graphic for the above table

Of interest in the table above is the following:

** Production is stable and high (above 600 mtpy) from 1981 through 1993, followed by a 20 percent decline to 493 mt for 1997.

** In the eight years from 1989-1996, the actual $/tr oz gold price is very stable (344-388,average of 373). Constant 1983 $/tr oz prices are also stable but much lower (244-306, average of 264).

** During 1998-2002 both sets of prices are extraordinarily (unnaturally?) stable. Actual $/tr oz prices (271-310, average of 287) are very low; constant 1983 $/tr oz prices (152-180, average of 166) are ridiculously low.

** The production decline from 493 mt in 1997 to 220 mt in 2008 has been orderly and steady, averaging 24.8 mtpy.

** The 140 percent increase in the actual $ gold price since 2003, when viewed in the full 28 year context, does appear to be a reaction to a long period of price suppression/depression.

** The constant 1983 $ price of $403/tr oz for 2008 can be viewed as a “ray of hope” bringing the market price more in-line with what the South African gold mining industry requires to regain it's “footing”. Home Page Next